122 Comments 2024-08-06

A-Share 5K Points: Time, US Collapse, Gold $5K Near

Here is the translation of the provided text into English: **Body:** The Soviet Union was essentially imploded by the U.S. dollar's interest rate hikes back in the day.

After the U.S. dollar decoupled from gold in 1973, the U.S. expanded the issuance of dollars in the 1980s and simultaneously significantly raised interest rates, successfully imploding the Soviet Union.

Coupled with President Gorbachev of the Soviet Union being lured by American freedom, it directly propelled the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

History has patterns, but our country's scale is far greater than that of the Soviet Union, and also larger than that of the current United States.

Although our country's GDP has not yet surpassed that of the U.S., our purchasing power GDP, with the advantage of population, has far exceeded that of the U.S.

Therefore, we are more powerful than the Soviet Union, and the market performance is just like that.

Since 2023, we have had Evergrande's "king bomb," but the U.S. has also had the Silicon Valley Bank "thunderclap."

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In the past two years, our country has had Evergrande, Country Garden, and several other real estate companies with "king bombs."

But the U.S. has also been hit with Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, First Republic Bank, and New York Community Bank "thunderclaps."

It can be seen that the market is the market, and the enterprise is the enterprise; you fight your way, and I fight mine.

Real estate companies do not represent the real estate market, and banks do not represent the financial market.

Both sides may engage in sacrificial attrition warfare.

So far, the overall pressure on the U.S. is relatively high.

If the overnight U.S. dollar does not cut interest rates, our country's market response, and the reserve requirement ratio still have room for reduction.

This is the strongest response and the confidence of a powerful nation.

Trump is currently obviously softening, not as strong as a few years ago.

Even Tesla has softened, raising the price of the Model Y by 20,000 euros in Europe, but only daring to increase the price by 5,000 yuan in China, and Lei Jun even made a joke: admire.

When immortals fight divorce, everyone can only scramble for gold to hedge.

On March 21, 2024, the spot gold price continued to rise, once reaching 2,222.65 U.S. dollars per ounce, now reported at 2,201 U.S. dollars per ounce, setting a new historical high.

The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged!

The U.S. Federal Reserve ended the two-day monetary policy meeting on the 20th, announcing that the target range for the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.

This is the fifth time since the peak of the U.S. dollar interest rate hike in September 2023 that it has neither increased nor decreased.

According to the economic outlook expectations, out of the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 9 believe that the level of the federal funds rate may drop to 4.5% to 4.75% within the year.

This indicates that, calculating at a rate of a 25 basis point cut per time, the Federal Reserve may implement three interest rate cuts this year, the same as predicted in December last year.

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates for the first time in 17 years!

On March 19, 2024, the era of negative interest rates ends!

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007.

The Bank of Japan set the policy interest rate in the range of 0%-0.1%.

It is the first interest rate hike since 2007, officially ending the eight-year era of negative interest rates, and it is the first interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in 17 years!

Japan's little tricks, everyone understands in their hearts, aren't they just trying to help the U.S. dollar?

These little tricks, there will be a death behind them, the Japanese automotive industry is wiped out, and 5 million Japanese will be unemployed, with GDP losing 40%.

Think about what they are thinking.

Gold may hit 5,000 U.S. dollars in 2025.

This expectation is that the concentration of global currencies is accelerating, and the number of high-quality currencies is decreasing, leading to the appreciation of hard currency gold.

When immortals fight divorce, and the world is so small.

The acceleration of currency concentration will make the currencies of many small countries become waste paper, such as Argentina, which has already surrendered and given up its own currency.

The U.S. dollar and the renminbi will advance and retreat against each other, and abnormal currencies and gold will naturally benefit.

Overall, the strongest currency in history is gold, but the strongest circulation is abnormal currency, and the most stable and strongest ecological currency is the U.S. dollar, and the rising renminbi.

Due to inflation, the U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate by half; due to internationalization factors, the renminbi will appreciate by double; abnormal currency will fluctuate greatly, and be stirred up by small countries in the world.

Gold will appreciate more than double because many countries around the world can only choose gold for hedging.

Only in this way can a new balance be achieved.

The size of the economy and technological strength will become the main factors affecting the currency.

Currently, the U.S. is being surpassed by China in everything except AI.

As I said before, technology, once it comes out, is ultimately a competition of the size of the national economic ecosystem.

Technology is no longer a threshold, the size of the ecosystem determines the final victory or defeat.

That AI chatGPT, on the surface, is currently leading, but since it is a competition of computing power driven by electricity, our country can also surpass.

For example, the recent domestic large-scale model Kimi is very popular, and its functionality has been greatly improved, even surpassing the experience of Baidu and other GPT products.

So, technology is no longer a difficulty, the size of the economy and ecosystem is the real threshold.

Some market views suggest that the price of gold may rise to 5,000 U.S. dollars per ounce.

The overall main expectation is that the U.S. is in a dilemma, unable to raise interest rates, fearing that it will be imploded.

It is afraid to lower interest rates, fearing that the currency will quickly leave and flow to the East, leading to the risk of being imploded.

The world is entering the Asian era, with India having 1.4 billion people and China nearly 1.4 billion people.

The super size in the urbanization era has great attraction and wealth creation ability.

The agricultural society of the U.S. cannot resist at all.

Europe is like this, and it is impossible to live, so it fights.

It has to fight.

And this is actually beneficial to a few superpowers because it accelerates the world's resources and trade, increases dependence on these few powers, and consolidates the economic foundation.

India is also smiling, everyone can see the recent attitude of India, they are now eager to make waves.

As the last super urbanization power, the rise of India is inevitable.

A-shares are now waiting for the U.S. dollar's surrender signal.

If the U.S. dollar does not cut interest rates, we are still at a stalemate of more than 3,000 points.

For policy stimulation, it is currently relatively small steps, and it can actually directly stimulate to 4,000 points, but the current policy is relatively conservative, so we can't be anxious.

Just wait for the national order.

Focus on high-growth tracks.

The market, just wait for the U.S. dollar to surrender, and the geyser will be at that time.

However, it is just a matter of the index, and the future of ordinary stocks is difficult.

It is difficult for non-high-growth industries.

Pay attention to the market changing.

It has become larger and is not easy to rise together.

There is no longer this condition.

A-shares 5,000 points need some time.

As long as the U.S. dollar softens, and bulk commodities rise, ETFs accelerate the expansion of scale, and the index reaches 5,000 points, it is not difficult.

Look at India's index pushing tens of thousands of points.

The index, driven by the leader, pay attention to this rule.