The latest data from the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the central bank) shows that as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, the national new mortgage loan interest rate has dropped to 3.45%, while the interest rates of existing mortgages are generally above 4%.

Due to the widening gap between the new mortgage loan interest rates and the existing mortgage loan interest rates, the "early repayment tide" continues, and the public's call for adjusting the interest rates of existing mortgages is gradually increasing.

On September 24, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages, guiding commercial banks to bring the interest rates of existing mortgages close to the new mortgage loan interest rates, is expected to result in an average decrease of about 0.5 percentage points.

Unifying the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes, the national minimum down payment ratio for the second home loan is reduced from 25% to 15%.

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Yang Chang, Chief Analyst of the Policy Team of the Zhongtai Securities Research Institute and Chief Expert of the Public Policy and Governance Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told China Business News that the aforementioned policies reflect the characteristics of promoting the stable operation of the economy from the perspective of monetary policy.

By reducing the reserve requirement ratio, it further releases about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, which is conducive to creating a more abundant fund environment for the real economy.

Unifying the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes further reduces the threshold for purchasing a house, creating conditions for attracting residents to participate in the real estate market.

It will effectively curb the current early repayment tide, where the interest rate difference between existing mortgages and new mortgages is at a high level.

On the one hand, the mortgage interest rates for the first and second homes continue to decline, and the mortgage interest rates in some cities have entered the "2" range; on the other hand, the interest rates of existing mortgages are still above 4%.

Against this background, residents have a strong willingness to repay their loans in advance.

Recent statistics from CICC show that the current early repayment rate of bank mortgages is still at a high level of about 14%, and there may be room to use consumer loans and business loans to replace mortgages.

According to data from the central bank, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the balance of personal housing loans was 37.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%.

Experts believe that reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages may help to reduce the willingness of borrowers to repay their loans in advance.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that guiding commercial banks to reduce the interest rates of existing mortgages close to the new mortgage loan interest rates will effectively curb the early repayment tide and alleviate its impact on residents' consumption.

This also sends a positive signal for stabilizing the real estate market, which is conducive to promoting the stability and recovery of the real estate market.

Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, believes that further reducing the interest rates of existing personal housing loans can alleviate the pressure of early repayment, reduce the risk of mortgage loans, reduce the repayment burden on borrowers, optimize their balance sheets, and release some consumption potential.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has entered the interest rate reduction channel, also releasing a certain space for interest rate reduction.

There are still some issues to be resolved.

In fact, since the beginning of September, the call for reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages has been getting higher and higher.

At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on September 5, Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, said that the further downward trend of deposit and loan interest rates is still facing certain constraints due to factors such as the speed of bank deposits flowing to wealth management products and the narrowing of bank net interest margins.

The central bank will closely observe the policy effect, and reasonably grasp the intensity and rhythm of monetary policy regulation according to the recovery of the economy, the realization of goals, and the specific problems faced by the macro economy.

What issues should be paid attention to when reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages?

Xie Zongbo, a financial writer, told reporters that although this policy orientation is favorable, banks need to give up profits.

Therefore, it is necessary to meet the market's demand for adjusting mortgage interest rates while balancing the normal operation of banks, which is the current problem to be solved.

"It is suggested to calculate the adjustment range according to the level of new mortgage loan interest rates in various places, adhere to the principle of risk pricing, and reduce the high-quality customers to the lowest level of new mortgage loan interest rates.

Considering that adjusting existing mortgages will reduce the interest income of commercial banks, it is suggested that the central bank introduce compensation measures."

Yang Haiping said to reporters.

Zheng Lei, Chief Economist of Samoyed Cloud Technology Group, said that the customer group of existing mortgages is relatively complex, including different income levels, different loan terms, different repayment methods and other factors, and it is necessary to formulate differentiated policy measures for different groups to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of the policy.

"It is necessary to remind mortgage customers that when considering early repayment or adjusting loan plans, they need to fully understand their actual situation and policy regulations to avoid blindly following the trend or making wrong decisions."

Zheng Lei said.

Yang Chang said that the focus of attention in the next stage is whether the policy on the capital side can pull the demand side, and at the same time, he expects the incremental policy on the demand side to continue to exert force.

(Reporter Wang Tongxu)