142 Comments 2024-05-30

Will MLF 'Cut Rates' This Week? US Inflation Data & Fed Officials' Speeches

Here is the translation of the provided text into English: **A Glimpse of Major Financial Events from September 23rd to September 29th, All Times are in Beijing Time:** **Key Focuses of the Week:** - Continuation of China's September MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility).

- U.S. August PCE Price Index and speeches by several high-ranking Federal Reserve officials, including Powell.

- Additionally, the U.S. will release the Q2 GDP and annualized QoQ final values of PCE Price Index, August durable goods orders, and preliminary PMI values for various countries in September will be announced successively.

The leadership election in Japan will officially begin.

**Wednesday (September 25th):** The People's Bank of China will carry out a continuation of the MLF worth 591 billion yuan.

The PBOC announced that on September 18th, it conducted a reverse repo operation of 568.2 billion yuan at a fixed rate and quantity bidding method, with a winning interest rate of 1.70%, which is consistent with the previous rate.

Moreover, the 591 billion yuan MLF that matured on the same day will be renewed on September 25th.

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Following the Fed's first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in four years, China's September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) did not decrease.

A team led by Tao Chuan from Minsheng Securities analyzed that overseas rate cuts are a "necessary but not sufficient" condition for domestic monetary easing, and history shows that the pace of domestic monetary easing may slightly lag behind overseas.

It is expected that domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts and reductions in reverse repo/MLF rates may come first, followed by adjustments to existing mortgage loan interest rates, and the LPR cut and adjustments to existing mortgage loan interest rates within the year may "not overlap".

The Securities Daily believes that the unchanged September LPR is partly due to the unchanged 7-day reverse repo rate and partly due to the pressure on the net interest margin of commercial banks, which limits the further reduction of the LPR quote in the short term.

Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst at Orient Gold & Credit, told the Securities Daily that if policy rates are cut continuously in the short term and LPR quotes are guided to follow suit, coupled with a significant reduction space in the large-scale existing mortgage loan interest rates, banks' net interest margins will face a significant downward pressure in the second half of the year, which is not conducive to the stability of bank operations; if the focus is on stabilizing the interest margin and deposit rates are cut significantly, it may trigger the risk of a large-scale shift of bank deposits to wealth management products and other similar financial products, which is also not conducive to the stability of bank operations.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, expects that considering the approaching special timing at the end of the quarter, the increase in government bond supply, and the disturbances to the short-term liquidity from reserve and tax payments, the market expects more macro policy efforts, and the central bank may still introduce tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, in conjunction with proactive fiscal policies, and with the central bank's flexible open market operations, it is expected that the liquidity is likely to remain stable.

**Friday (September 27th):** The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce the August PCE Price Index.

Bank of America stated that it expects the U.S. August PCE to be another "encouraging" report on personal consumption expenditure.

BofA believes that the Fed's outlook for a gradual decline in inflation is still on track.

If the core PCE monthly rate rises strongly by 0.3% or more, it may boost the U.S. dollar.

However, BofA also stated that after the Fed indicated that it is more concerned about the weakness in the U.S. job market, next week's inflation data may take a back seat.

**Thursday (September 26th):** The U.S. will announce the number of initial claims for the week ending September 21st, revealing the recent condition of the labor market.

**Thursday (September 26th):** Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will pre-record a video message for an event.

After the Fed's first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in four years, Powell will speak publicly for the first time, and investors will focus on his possible remarks on the path of interest rate cuts within the year.

In the speeches on Friday of this week, Fed officials still have differences on the magnitude of further rate cuts.

Fed Governor Waller said that if the job market deteriorates, a 50 basis point rate cut may be considered, while Fed Governor Bowman said that considering that inflation is still above the 2% target level, a 50 basis point rate cut might lead the public to believe that the Fed has prematurely declared victory over inflation, and is more inclined to cut rates by 25 basis points.

Additionally, several Fed officials will also deliver speeches successively: - Monday (September 23rd): 2024 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on the economic outlook, and 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat.

- Tuesday (September 24th): 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech.

- Thursday (September 26th): Fed Chairman Powell will pre-record a video message for an event, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed Chairman Williams will give a speech, Fed Governor Barr will give a speech, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will give a speech.

- Friday (September 27th): 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a fireside chat with Fed Governor Barr.

**Friday (September 27th):** The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will hold a presidential election, and the new president will succeed Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister of Japan.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the ruling party of Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party, issued an election announcement for the president, i.e., the party leader, on the 12th, with a record number of 9 candidates.

The Prime Minister of Japan is elected by the nomination of the party and voting by members of both houses of the Diet, and is generally held by the party leader of the party that holds a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.

According to opinion poll results, the most popular candidates for the new party leader include former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, current Minister in charge of Economic Security Takumi Yamashita, and current Minister in charge of Digital Affairs Taro Kono.

Voting will be held on the 27th, and the counting will be conducted on the same day.

The media predicts that it is very likely that no one will win more than half of the votes in the first round.

Who can win in the second round depends on who can gain more support from members of the Diet.

In previous elections, there have been several cases of a reversal in the second round with more support from members of the Diet.

**Meta Connect 2024 (i.e., the annual developer conference) will be held on September 25th to 26th local time in the United States, and it is expected that there will be a large number of displays about Meta AI.

The company's official website shows that Meta founder and CEO Zuckerberg's Connect keynote speech will start at 10 a.m. Pacific Time on September 25th (1 a.m. Beijing Time on September 26th).

At that time, Zuckerberg will share the latest developments in mixed reality, AI, and wearable devices.

The industry believes that the focus of this conference will be on head-mounted smart devices, and Meta is expected to release an updated version of the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses at the conference, which is expected to add a brand new chatbot assistant experience.

In addition, the new mixed reality glasses Orion being developed internally at Meta are also expected to make their debut at this conference.

**U.S. Q2 GDP and PCE Price Index Final Values on Thursday (September 26th):** The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce the final values of Q2 GDP annualized QoQ and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized QoQ.

The previously announced revised values show that the U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ revised value is 3%, revised up by 0.2 percentage points from the initial value of 2.8%, and the Q1 annualized QoQ growth rate is 1.4%; the U.S. Q2 GDP deflator annualized QoQ revised value is 2.5%, expected and initial values are both 2.3%.

The U.S. Q2 core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized QoQ revised value is 2.8%, slightly revised down from the initial value of 2.9%, lower than the expected 2.9%, showing that consumption is still resilient, increasing the possibility of an economic "soft landing".

**Micron Technology will announce its Q4 earnings for the fiscal year 2024 after the U.S. stock market closes on the 25th local time.

The previous quarter's financial report shows that Micron Technology's revenue in the third quarter was $6.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 81.6% from the $3.75 billion in the same period last year, higher than the analyst's expected $6.67 billion, and also higher than the revenue of $5.82 billion in the previous fiscal quarter.

Micron Technology expects that the adjusted revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter ending in August will be between $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion, with the midpoint of the range basically in line with the analyst's expected $7.58 billion; the adjusted EPS is expected to be a net profit of $1.08 per share plus or minus $0.08, with the market expecting $1.02; the adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 33.5% and 35.5%, with the market expecting 34.5%.

Although the guidance for the next fiscal quarter is in line with market expectations, it is not dazzling enough, and Micron Technology's stock price fell more than 9% after the market closed that day.

**During the week (September 23rd to September 27th), there is 1 new stock listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in A-shares, and 1 new stock subscription.

A total of 11 new funds (combined statistics of A and C categories) were issued during the week, including 2 bond funds, 0 hybrid funds, 0 equity funds, 3 index funds, and 0 Reits.

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